Archive for the ‘2012 Elections’ Category
Wow. This blogger is surprised.
I thought Rob Portman, U.S. Senator from OH-IO was the frontrunner in the so-called veep sweepstakes. Of course some homerism was in play along with Senator Portman’s solid credentials. But we would have lost him in the senate even though Governor Kasich would have picked a solid replacement.
On the competency scale, Rep. Paul Ryan is another solid addition to Mitt Romney’s sheer business acumen and over-all competence.
Just on competence alone does Romney-Ryan beat Obama-Biden. Can you seriously look at that other side and think “they really know what they are doing”?
When it comes to competency, Romney-Ryan is the USA Basketball team and Obama-Biden are the Nigerian basketball team at the London Olympics.
Of course, the actual election will be a lot closer than that final score.
How about a little taste of what Ryan brings to Team Romney:
Watch Obama’s face as he knows he is being taken to task by Ryan and is losing on the merits.
If this is what Ryan will bring to this campaign the polls will tighten.
Last week your humble maker of typos was invited by Team Romney to be in a campaign commercial specially for Ohioans.
I was–no snickering–talent.
I was happy to do it but surprised by the invite as during the primary this blogger posted his endorsement of Rick Santorum. But Team Romney are making great strides in uniting the clans–I mean bringing in the various Republican factions. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul son of libertarian leaning presidential candidate Ron is on board with Team Romney. Mr. Gray-Glo, too, is on board to recover America from the changeless hopelessness brought on by the Obama era.
Because the content of the ad was embargoed, I could not post about it. Embargoed is a great word to use for many different circumstances: I would have paid my bills but the economy was embargoed by Obama. See?
Tim O’Toole, the producer/videographer/line giver, asked me to hold off posting (as if anyone really reads you–The Voice) until the commercial is released. They wanted the content to hit Obama by surprise.
This is one huge difference this video star (there will be no living with him now–The Voice) notices between Team Romney’s campaign and the failed McCain campaign way back in ’08; Romney is Fast and Furious in getting his message out and rebutting Obama. Any time Obama’s teleprompter makes a gaffe, Team Romney is on it and has a commercial released.
Two years ago the president was in Ohio touting his amazing Summer of Stimulus, he just forgot the recovery part.
And that is the message of the Recover Our Country video I and other Romney Team supporters made last week.
Quite a few of the men and women in the montage are from the conservative grassroots organization Cuyahoga Valley Republicans. We were founded in July 2009 as we saw where Obama was leading our nation.
The video is here:
All My Ex’s Live in Texas could be Romney’s song of the day as his victory in the Texas primary puts him over the needed delegate count of 1144.
His ex’s he left in the Texan dust are Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. These guys weren’t even close; Santorum came in second with 265 to Romney’s 1191 delegates.
Romney’s ex’s combined delegates are 540 which is less than half of his total haul. Makes one wonder (that would be this one blogger) what kind of influence they may have over the platform and other issues like prime-time speaking roles at the convention.
And about that convention, well, it will now be conventional as in a scripted and controlled formality of a nominating convention. Those who bet on a brokered back room wheeler dealer of a show can toss those tickets in the trash recycle bin.
The Paulist? Yeah, what about the Paulist? In chats and emails these hardcore Ron Paul supporters believe there are actual hidden and secret delegates that actually are his.
Gingrich and his I Love The ’90s nostalgia tour is no more. I hope the GOP has one of those invisible fence type collars on him in hopes of reining him in when his mouth and brain moves from rhetoric against Obama into rhetoric against vulture capitalism like he did during the primary campaign against Romney.
Santorum has the most to gain politically in the future by shoring up one of Romney’s apparently weaker stances—Social Issues. Santorum can help Romney here by supporting him and thus giving his conservative social seal of approval to Romney. He also can be the rod that takes the heat lightning strikes that come from the mainstream media away from Romney as it pertains to socially conservative stands.
Santorum could help Romney in swing states like Ohio where the primary was close and Santorum flourished in regions and areas home to the more socially conservative members of the base. Romney cannot afford to have these voters sit this one out because of their doubts about him. Santorum alleviating these doubts or at least tempering them can be the difference between Ohio going Romney Red versus Obama Blue.
And an Obama Blue Ohio will mean the blues for the rest of this republic.
Cleaning out the clumps in the litter box naturally causes me to think about the political process and primary season.
Team Romney knows they dodged a big stake into the Heart Of It All because Team Santorum failed to get on the ballot in three congressional districts.
A mere 0.9% is the difference between victory and what Santorum got instead.
Thankfully, it isn’t enough to trigger the automatic recount Ohio election law requires.
Santorum left 18 delegates for Romney and the others to pick up. If he fails to get the nomination by 17…
Something else Team Santorum left behind was an entire state, Virginia.
Santorum is the stone in Romney’s shoe that he just can’t shake out and when he thinks he did, ouch, there it is again.
And Romney must be like the itchy spot in the center of the back Santorum just cannot reach.
This morning a caller to Bill Bennett’s radio show mentioned something significant about Newt’s win in his home state of Georgia.
He only won 47.2% of the vote by those who should know him best.
Romney won his ‘home’ state of Michigan by another slim margin over the Stone in His Sole but in Massachusetts, the state he was elected Governor earlier in this young century, he scored 72.2% of voters who should know him best.
Pennsylvania’s primary on April 24 bears watching closely to see how Santorum fares in his own home state.
Rick, that itch will just get worse.
There will be new clumps needing sifted as well.
It went down to the stretch run in the Ohio leg of Super Tuesday with Romney besting Santorum by maybe a neck.
No photo but possibly a recount.
The senator has only himself to blame for this because he was not on the ballot in three districts. Santorum supporters could not vote for him at all in districts 6, 9, and 13. How many votes were left figuratively on the floor?
My live election results from the Secretary of State’s website has almost 98% of precincts in with Romney ahead of Santorum 38% to 37%. It is closer because of rounding.
Mr. Gray-glo changes his mind because the neck is closer to a nose to a head bob or two.
Presidential races lends itself to horse racing analogies; maybe because most politicians seem more like horse’s asses dropping horse shit where ever they stop.
It isn’t over here until the attorneys show up for the recount.
Not much will change in the outcome except it may get tighter.
Romney takes the Buckeye state. But bettors are advised to hold all tickets until the tote board show official.
How much can I beat this dead horse race metaphor?
A lot, I am afraid, a lot.
Kaptur Makes Kucinich Kaput!
The night was different for Dennis Kucinich as he lost his match race against Marcy Kaptur.
I won’t believe Kucinich is finished until he is bound by garlic rope and encircled by a ring of salt.
Does he have a “Washington or Bust” decal on his car?
Stories have him shoving as many yellowed “Dennis!” signs into his carpet bag as he can.
On the Republican side on the 9th district it looks like “Joe the Plumber” who may not be known as Samuel Wurzelbacher may have squeaked out a narrower victory over Steve Kraus.
A mere 400 some odd votes separate them.
A recount is also predicted.
If Wurzelbacher’s lead holds past the recount, he will face Kaptur in a district designed for a Democrat victory.
Back to the presidential. Super Duper Tuesday has not cleared things up for the GOP.
Romney remains the favorite to win it all.
If not in ballot or caucus rooms, then in Tampa in the backrooms where deals get made.
But who among the field horses left will have the best horse trade the makes the most horse sense?
Sorry, but it’s almost 1:30 am!
Our winter’s freeze and thaw cycles takes its toll on our roads creating potholes or chuck holes making driving an adventure.
Some are just small bumps that jump and thump your ride while others will break an axle or swallow a car whole.
One rough patch of potholed chucked up roadway reminded me about this year’s presidential election.
Its early in this cycle even though most political fanatics feel it’s long in the tooth and graying around the temples and beard regions.
20 primary debates that had the feel of an American Idol cattle call will do that. At least we are down to a final four. Is your president bracket busted?
Back to stretching this metaphor…
I was reading posts tracking partisan enthusiasm. It is too soon to see if an actual gap is emerging or is this just a small pot hole on the road to the White House that can easily be patched.
Or is it a chasm?
Anyway early polls show that Dems are not as excited about this race as Republicans are.
Gallup posts: GOP Slightly Ahead in Voting Enthusiasm Both parties far less enthusiastic today than Democrats were in 2008 writes Lydia Saad.
By 53% to 45%, Republicans, including independents who lean Republican, are slightly more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to say they are “more enthusiastic than usual about voting” this year. Republicans have consistently led Democrats in voting enthusiasm since last fall, but to varying degrees.
And it isn’t just because the primaries are still competitive.
The 53% of Republicans who feel more enthusiastic about voting today — as Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are engaged in a pitched nomination battle — is greater than the 44% found in February 2008 when John McCain and Mike Huckabee were still dueling in the primaries.
Before the elephant starts doing his happy jig, Gallup notes that in 2008 Dems were more excited than Republicans are now.
At that time, 79% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting, higher than the 53% of Republicans today and the 44% of Republicans in 2008.
Maybe this elongated primary season is helping to slowly build the enthusiasm needed to defeat an incumbent president. We need to peak at the right time if we want to win.
The enthusiasm question is important because, in the last several presidential and midterm elections, the party whose rank-and-file members showed the most enthusiasm about voting toward the end of the campaign either gained congressional seats or won the presidency. That includes, for instance, Barack Obama in 2008, the Republicans in the 2010 midterm congressional elections, and the Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections. Thus, Republicans’ ability to maintain their 2012 enthusiasm advantage through the fall could be an important factor in the election outcome.
And the donkey cart needs to watch for additional pot holes growing. Warned you about stretching it.
Enthusiasm is down among the Hope and Change me crowd:
At this time four years ago, 62% of Americans, overall, were more enthusiastic about voting and 30% were less enthusiastic. That eagerness was mainly the result of heightened enthusiasm among Democrats, with 79% “more enthusiastic,” as noted above.
However, corresponding with their Democratic leanings, nonwhites and 18- to 29-year-olds also showed exceptionally high enthusiasm about voting in 2008, with more than 70% of each group saying they were “more enthusiastic.” Today, by contrast, these groups’ mood is on par with that of whites and older adults.
There is still time for Dems to build their enthusiasm. But…
Gallup trends show that enthusiasm generally tends to build as Election Day nears. However, in 2004 and 2008, Gallup found that the February patterns of enthusiasm by party generally held through October.
On College Campuses, Obama’s Not Cool Anymore reports the Atlantic Wire dot com.
His approval rating is at 56 percent approval rating among people ages 18 to 29. That’s higher than the 51 percent national average, but that’s a decline of 10 points compared to the 2008 exit polls.
But Obama need not worry too much about this lack of youth support. The mythical youth vote was not any greater than in ’04:
Despite all the buzz young voters got in 2008, they weren’t critical to Obama’s victory.
Voters aged 18 to 24 turned out at a rate of 49 percent in 2008, compared to 47 percent four years earlier–a statistically significant, but still small increase, according to the Census Bureau.
The difference? Obama turned on and turned out more old folks who actually vote.
Obama’s huge get out the vote operation reached out to way more young voters than McCain’s campaign–25 percent compared to 13 percent–but Obama didn’t neglect the old folks. His campaign reached 55 percent of seniors in Virginia, for example compared to McCain’s 45 percent.
Another factor this guy on keyboards thinks may be hurting Obama with his old youth group is that they may have all ready graduated college into the Obama jobless recovery.
Just 54 percent of Americans ages 18 to 24 currently have jobs, according to a study released Thursday by the Pew Research Center. That’s the lowest employment rate for this age group since the government began keeping track in 1948. And it’s a sharp drop from the 62 percent who had jobs in 2007 — suggesting the recession is crippling career prospects for a broad swath of young people who were still in high school or college when the downturn began.
Rasmussen Reports confirms this as well: Partisan Trends: GOP Holds Steady, Democrats Fall To New Low
The number of Republicans in the country was virtually unchanged in February, while the number of Democrats fell to a new low for the third month in a row.
During February, 36.0% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 35.9% in January and the highest number of Republicans measured since December 2010.
At the same time, only 32.4% of adults said they were Democrats, down from 32.5 in January and 32.7% in December. This marks the third straight month that the number of Democrats nationally has fallen to the lowest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports.
The number of voters not affiliated with either major political party remained the same at 31.6% in both January and February.
The GOP now holds a partisan identification advantage of 3.6 percentage points. That’s the widest gap between the two parties since July 2010, when Democrats held a 3.6 percentage point lead.
Rasmussen says, “In each of the recent election cycles, the victorious party has gained in net partisan identification over the course of the election year. It is worth noting, however, that the gains were generally short-lived.” Well they only have to stay alive until Wednesday November 7th.
Keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all Adults, not Likely Voters. Republicans are a bit more likely to participate in elections than Democrats.
That is worth remembering, Republicans are a bit more likely to vote than the Democrats.
Is that just a pot hole in the road ahead or a donkey swallowing chasm?
There’s been a lot of speculation lately on whether Mitt Romney can accumulate the 1,144 delegates he’ll need by late August to clinch the Republican presidential nomination at the convention in Tampa.
And there’s also been speculation of just why he’s been so tight with Ron Paul.
Knowing what I know about Ron Paul, I suspect a lot of that is personal in nature. Ron doesn’t seem to particularly like either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, perhaps for the obvious reason that neither is very likable.
But Mitt seems an affable enough sort.
That might explain why Ron’s been doing a tag team with Mitt against the other two.
Another explanation is that Ron wants some bargaining power at that convention.[...]
And as we get closer to the convention, there’s even more reason not to drop out. If it really looks like Romney can’t get to 1,144, then both Gingrich and Santorum will want to stay in the running for Tampa, as will Paul, of course.
Rove goes into some detail about the difference between a “contested” convention and a “brokered” covention.
I think tha may be a distinction without much of a difference. If no one shows up with the magic 1,144 delegates, anything’s possible. The horse-trading begins right then and it’s hard to imagine either Gingrich or Santorum handing his delegates to Romney.
It is indeed possible to see Paul doing so, however, in return for some reward or another.
Paul Mulshine (what a great name for a political pundit) cites two posts in his piece:
Ron Paul’s campaign has long centered on a “complex plan to force a long battle with Mitt Romney for delegates to the Republican National Convention in August.”5 Paul’s ability to organize in the caucuses and supporters enthusiasm cannot be understated – as he continues to siphon delegates away from Romney, who is also depending on the caucuses to secure the nomination, – and is played out in Maine where the Texas Congressman lost to the Massachusetts Governor in the New England caucus by only 156 votes.
He has lost the electability argument as well. A February 16th Democracy Corps Poll finds that Romney “may be on the edge of political death. The shift against him is one of the biggest in the polls and he now competes with Republicans in Congress for unpopularity. In the summer of 1996, Bob Dole essentially was disqualified in voters’ eyes and never really recovered his footing.”22 Further, a new CNN/ORC International poll finds that 53% of independents have an unfavorable view of Romney, compared with 44% last month.23 Further a new Des Moines Iowa Poll released February 18th shows Obama losing Iowa not only to Romney by a slim 46%-44% margin, but also losing to Santorum by 48%-44% and Ron Paul by 49%-42%.24[...]
Politics is personal. People vote for a guy who they either like or they trust to do the job well. Romney scores high on the latter category, but as the season wears on he’s looking less and less like a regular Joe. The sharp increases in Romney’s unfavorability ratings have removed the “electability” argument.
Meanwhile, a brokered convention needs party bosses, and today there aren’t any. In the old days, party chiefs often led delegations of regulars who took orders and depended on patronage. No longer. In some states, winning candidates don’t even pick their delegates—party conventions do. This means that while the delegation is committed to support a candidate for a certain number of ballots, many individual delegates remain loyal to other candidates. That makes it more difficult for anyone in a smoke-filled bargaining session to deliver a large number of delegates.
As for a contested convention: This last happened for the GOP in 1976. Neither President Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan had a majority when delegates arrived in Kansas City. The nomination was decided by the unpledged Mississippi delegation swinging in behind Ford. But there are far fewer delegations in 2012 that will arrive in Tampa unpledged.
It’s also important to remember that, according to the Republican National Committee, delegates have been officially awarded in just four contests. Missouri’s primary was just a beauty contest, and the caucus states have county, congressional-district and state conventions to go through later this spring before their delegations are set, all of which will be affected by what happens in the race between now and then.
There are 48 still to go (including D.C., American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Virgin Islands and Guam). And once a candidate starts winning, they tend to keep winning, especially beginning in April when more states award delegates on a winner-take-all basis.